Monday, January 23, 2017

And Another Thing: Drive-thrus are not for me, and no, I don’t want a meal

I won’t make it a big secret that I prefer the convenience of picking up some dinner at a restaurant rather than cook at home. I don’t mind cooking; it’s really just the time factor that gets in the way. Oh, and the planning. Trying to figure out what to do for dinner at 6:14 p.m. isn’t ideal for cooking up some creation on the stove.

So anyway, I eat out a lot. Sure it’s unhealthy and isn’t helping me trim my figure, but it’s just a reality. Which brings me to the topic: Ordering fast food.

First of all, I always walk into the establishment to order my food. I park my vehicle in the parking lot, physically exit, walk into the building and step up to the counter to place my order. Is this exhausting? No. But apparently fast food is even more convenient if you order in the drive-thru lane. I know I’m probably in the minority here, but drive-thrus are just dumb to me.

Is it really that much quicker when there’s 10 cars in line? Then you often have to sit there past the window and wait for someone to deliver the food to your car anyway. (I also do not understand why people eating their parked cars in the parking lot is a thing. Just go inside and sit at a table! Or go home and eat!) The other side though, from a person that orders inside, is that the drive-thru can slow things down at the counter. I’ve waited to have my order taken while the drive-thru gets serviced first, or so it seems.

It’s also expanded to drug stores and banks. My family and I make jokes about what else could have a drive-thru setup, making it easier for lazy people to never have to leave their cars. “I’d drive into the building if I could,” we say, in a sing-song voice.

My apologies if you prefer using drive-thrus and don’t consider yourself a lazy human being. Like I acknowledged, I know I’m probably in the minority here.

Here’s the other thing about these joints that really grinds my gears: Meals. The old saying about fast food places was: “Would you like fries with that?” Well, that’s turned into: “Would you like a meal?” I don’t know who started it, but every menu board has a numbered list of meal options, the main food item with a side/fries and then a drink. What a deal! You’ll probably save 29 cents or something, too.

It’s like a reflex for workers to ask this question, even before you’re done ordering in some cases. I know what I want. When I ask for a cheeseburger and a medium drink, it means I don’t want any fries so why would I order a meal? I'm also not completely against these meals; I'll get them sometimes.

My dad ordered a cheeseburger, medium fries and a drink at McDonald’s recently. Right away, the fella asked about a meal. And then: “Well, the meal comes with two cheeseburgers, is that OK?” Um, no. He didn’t want TWO cheeseburgers. One unhealthy patty with melted cheese is enough.

I’m a fan of Arby’s, mostly for the curly fries. I’ll often order a sandwich with the snack-size fries, because it’s only $1 for the fries and there’s less of them, so it’s a way of tricking myself into thinking I’m not being as unhealthy as I could be if I get the larger order with a meal. Of course, ordering this way will usually get me the meal question.

This all may seem super petty and stupid, but that’s why this is filed under the “And another thing” category. Feel free to tell me in the comments why drive-thrus and fast-food meals are amazing.

Full disclosure: I have not worked in one of these drive-thru establishments, so maybe I shouldn’t be complaining about something when I don’t know the process firsthand. More power to those that do this work. But this is a blog, so I’ll share my opinion about it.

Now I’ll go order my single cheeseburger with a small fries. No, I don’t want a meal.

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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Wild Game Day: Debbils at Wild 1/17/2017

GameDay:  New Jersey @ Minnesota, 1/17/2017
New Jersey Record: 18-18-9, 45Pts (7th Metropolitan Division)
New Jersey Captain: Andy Greene
New Jersey Coach: John Hynes
Minnesota Record: 28-9-5, 61Pts (1st Central Division, 1st Western Conference)
10/22/2016:  New Jersey 2 Minnesota 1 OT

Time: 7PM CT
TV: Frogs Sports Nord
Radio: Kayfabe 100.3FM

New Jersey Lines:
Corey Schneider 13-14-7 .910 2.68 GAA

Wild Lines:
Courtesy Dailyfaceoff.com

Devan Dubnyk 23-7-3 .940 1.78GAA
 

Goals Per Game:  New Jersey 28th (2.18)  Minnesota  4th (3.26)
Goals Against:  New Jersey 19th (2.82)  Minnesota 2nd (2.14)
Power Play %:  New Jersey 28th (13.2%)  Minnesota 13th (20.2%)
PK:  New Jersey 8th (83.3%)  Minnesota 6th (84.9%)

Monday, January 16, 2017

The Game: Sustainable?

By Nick

It's official: The Wild is for real.

Really, the B2B sweeps against the Habs and Rangers AND Stars and Blackhawks should be all we need to know.  But there's a whole host of other statistics in support of their overall good-ness this season if those don't do it for you.

So, because we're Minnesota sports fans, why aren't we happier?  Because Minnesota sports teams have provided us with a lifetime of failing despite the statistics and other empirical evidence.

Okay, fair enough, right? So let's focus on that: is this sustainable?

I'd say the offense is sustainable.  They are getting contributions from so many different sources that, even if you assume some of them would fall off, it seems unlikely they all will.  I'm prepared to say that Staal will continue to have a positive influence on Coyle, for example.  I don't think Staal is just on a hot streak.  And Parise is still working on getting up to plane.  And Pommer might get hot.  I know, I know.  But, in a season filled with crazy shit so far, why not?

.940/1.78 seems like it can not be sustained.  But he's not making crazy, acrobatic - desperate - saves.  He's economical.  He's not getting rattled.  He's strong mentally.  Nevertheless, last season, the best save percentage (at least 40 GP) in the league was .930 (Brian Elliott).  Ben Bishop put up the best GAA, with a 2.06.  Ironically, both of those guys are struggling this season.  If Duby does continue this play for the rest of the season, we better hope that same fate doesn't await him next season.  In 2014-2015 Price put up the best spct and GAA, with a .933 and 1.96, respectively.  In other words, Duby can come back towards (if not entirely to) earth, stats-wise, and still continue to be the backbone of this team.

I think overall team defense is sustainable.  Last night Dumba and Scandella were a hot mess for two periods, and then got it together.  Even Suter had an off game (LA).  In other words, they're not all playing out of their minds every night - which wouldn't be sustainable.  This team is built on defensive buy-in, always has been.  That hasn't changed under Boudreau.  With the defensively-responsible forwards we have I don't see that attitude changing in the room - especially with all these Ws backing up that mindset.

Coaching is sustainable.  It has to be.  Before the seasons started we all wondered how Boudreau had managed all those division championships, and whether he'd be able to do it here.  To me it seems the answer is that he is a premier in-game bench manager, and he is willing to alter his overall strategy depending on the make-up of the team and it's current macro trend.

Injuries frankly are not sustainable.  The Wild is healthy right now.  Teams just don't go extended periods of time without suffering some injuries.  Odds are that our depth will again be tested before the season is out.

The bottom line for me is that there is no rational reason to doubt the Wild's ability to keep this going.  Maybe not at a .726 pace, but enough to contend for the division title.  Our collective psyche is really the biggest reason we don't think that's possible.  That may be irrational, but it is definitely founded in historical context.  Do we have the balls to set aside decades of disappointment and heartache to get behind this team, raise the expectations and let our hearts run free?  I just don't know.

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Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Game: This Week in the NHL 1/8/16-1/14/16


Standings Watch: The best division last week was the Atlantic, who went a collective 14-10-2. There were five games between the Atlantic and Central last week, with the Canadiens beating the Jets and losing to the Wild, and the Bruins beating the Blues and losing to the Predators, and the Wings beat the Stars and lost to the Hawks.

The Central was the second best division, at 12-10-1.

Then the Pacific, at 10-9-3. LA beat the Jets and Blues but lost to the Stars, and the Jets also lost to the Coyotes but beat the Flames. Anaheim beat Colorado (lol) and Dallas but lost to the Wild.

Oddly, last was the Metropolitan Division, who could be coming back to earth, at 13-12-2. Only one game took place between the Metro and Central last week, and that was the 6-0 thrashing that Washington gave Chicago.

The Big Drama of the week was Andrew Shaw, who decided the best way to celebrate his return after missing 14 games was to go for a blind side hit on Jesper Fast of the Rangers.



It was a blindside hit that was well after the play, and exactly what we don’t want in the game. Shaw is quickly turning into the new Matt Cooke. So expect the Wild to sign him in 6 years and talk about how he’s a changed man.

When the two hottest teams met, we knew one would have their streak ended. What’s fascinating is that since then, in 2017, the Wild are 4-0-1, while the Blue Jackets are 3-4-0. This really shows off Minnesota’s resiliency.

Something else that shows of Minnesota’s resiliency? The Wild are 10-5-1 when the opposition scores first. That’s a 0.625 winning percentage, the best in the NHL. This speaks to the Wild’s attitude when they’re down. I can’t remember a Wild team that could come back the way this one does.

Take those two facts together and you have a team that can be down in the micro sense and the macro, and either way they don’t let mood swings affect them as they did in the past. And considering the two big changes on the team are swapping Tomas Vanek for Eric Staal and swapping Mike Yeo/John Torchetti for Bruce Boudreau, I think it’s fair to put this on the coaching staff(s)

Even though the big streaks have ended, the Capitals now want in, and have won 8 in a row. They’re hot on the heels of the Jackets in the Metro, so that division is still in upheaval and likely will be through the buzzer. If this keeps up, the Penguins or Rangers could have to content themselves with a Wild Card spot.   

Colorado is willing to listen to offers? Even more interesting is that the Bruins are apparently eyeing Gabriel Landeskog. Enjoy that clown out east. But if that happens, I’d hate to play against a Backes-Landeskog line. Keep your head up.

Couple Wild on the leader boards around the league: Ryan Suter (+27), Jason Zucker (+25), and Jared Spurgeon (+24) top the +/- leaderboard, with Mikko Koivu and Mikael Granlund tied with Michael Grabner (Rangers) tied in 4th place (+22). Matt Dumba is just outside the top 10 at +19.

Want to guess who leads the team in Missed shots? It’s not Pominville, although he is up there with 32. Jason Zucker has missed the net 39 times in 41 games. By contrast, Chris Stewart has only missed 12 times, also in 41 games.

It’s great to think of Luke Kunin captaining USA to the WJC Gold. Know anyone else who captained team USA in the WJCs? How about Jason Zucker? After winning gold in 2010 (Derek Stepan) and silver in 2011 (John Ramage?), he captained team USA to 7th place in 2012. Zucker’s team also had John Gibson, Jacob Trouba, Jarred Tinordi, Nick Bjugstad, J.T. Miller, Kyle Rau, Brandon Saad, and Charlie Coyle.

Wild speculation of the week: Darcy Kuemper will be in someone else’s uniform next season.

Bits and Pieces Round:
  • The Wild have taken the 5th fewest penalty minutes in the League.  
  •  The Wild have taken 7 bench minors, 4th most in the NHL.
  •  One of the 4 teams to have taken fewer penalties than the Wild are the Blackhawks.
  •  The Wild have the fewest hits in the NHL.
  •  The Wild have the second best shooting percentage in the NHL (11.1% - Ranger at 11.6%)


Looking ahead:
  • Three Central Division games this week: Big one is Wild in Chicago tonight.
  •  Also: Blackhawks-Avs and Blues-Jets.
  •  Nerd fight of the week: Stars-Sabres on Monday.





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Friday, January 13, 2017

Pods:The 5MM - Feeling So Positive It's Disgusting

By Nick

Other than Bergy's audio issues, a fun romp through the current state of the Wild.


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The Game: Wild 7, Habs 1 - Takeaways

By Nick

I just can't deny my feelings any more.  I know, I know, I know, shut up.

But the statistical evidence is just overwhelming.  You know all the numbers.

Okay, yes, the Habs were both tired and injury-depleted.  We had the fortunes of the schedule aiding us.  No doubt.  But, look, in addition to the four B2Bs we've already had, we have nine more this season.  Nine.  We'll get ours.

Ed Rooney knows how many times the Wild plays back-to-backs
You can't control who you're playing on a given night.  Your job is to beat whichever team shows up.  So, with that said, here are my takeaways from last night's game.

1) Should Stewy have put the Habs on the power play at the end?  It cost Duby the shutty.  Yes.  The answer is yes.  Period, the end.  I have been begging for this team to not be soft for years.  Especially when it comes to the goalie, and double-especially when that goalie is the Vezina and Jennings winner to this point, and maybe even gets some Hart consideration.  Could the refs have obviated the skirmish by calling the guys bumping Duby?  Yes.  But even if they had, just sending the message that our goalie is off-limits is something I have been campaigning for from this team - so I'm not changing my tune now.  Good on Stewy.  And I'll fight anyone who disagrees with this.

B) My favorite part of the game was that the Wild didn't sit on their lead.  Well, I guess you could say they sat on the 1-0 lead in the first.  But they just kept coming.  I said it on the ITC twitter account, but I like "keep attacking" Wild so much better than "sit back and hope you don't fuck up".  Confidence, killer instinct, coaching, whatever is behind that, I'll take it.

3) We've all been saying Staal has helped Mikko this year by making him not have to shoulder all the burden of a top line center.  It's plain to anyone who follows this team that Mikko has not been a pure #1 center maybe ever.  He does a lot of things well, a couple things extremely well.  But he has never scored enough to be a legit top line center.  But, thinking about how this team did keep the pedal to the metal, and has bounced back, maybe Staal also really has helped by offering a new take on the leadership dynamic.  We know he's stepping up in the room.  And he has something that no one else in our leadership group (9, 11, 20, 29) has: a ring.  I don't think we can overstate the impact of the Staal signing.  Kudos to Fletcher on that one.

IV) This is irrelevant, but as long as I'm talking about awards prematurely, when the BJs were running their streak to an amazing 16 games, all the talk was that Tortorella would be an automatic for the Jack Adams if the season ended at the half-way point.  But, since then, the BJs are 1-3.  Since the Flyers completed their 10-game winning streak they are 3-6-2.  Since the Wild lost to the BJs, they're 3-0-1.  And those three wins are over San Jose, Anaheim and Montreal - so not like they're beating Arizona, Colorado and the Islanders.  I wonder, now that we're at the actual mid-point, games-wise, if Bruce would sneak past Torts in Adams voting.

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Thursday, January 12, 2017

The Game: One Stat Tells Story of Wild's Success

By Nick

No, I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch.

Yes, I still remember my own blog post from earlier this week talking about how hard it is to just accept that this team is good.

No, I'm not burning the candle at both ends here.

I got to thinking about Duby vs. Price tonight.  And how that feels like the story - the best goalie in the league, versus the best goalie in the league this season.  And you know what, maybe that is the story of tonight.  But it's not the story of the Wild's success this season-to-date.  Not by a long shot.

So, I looked into the stats that backed up my premise.  Because there's another sub-narrative that comes into play if those stats actually do support the premise.  Which they do.  Let me explain.

My theory was that it's not defensive play that is the difference for the Wild relative to its historical performance.  It's offense, and more specifically finishing.  The first part is obvious to anyone who has paid attention to the Wild throughout its history.  The Wild was born as a team that had to rely on defense because it didn't have enough offense to rely on that.  The historical data back that up.  I went to NHL.com and looked at the Wild's goals against/game ranking for each season since it was born.

Those rankings, in order from oldest to most recently completed season: 12th, 24th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 21st, 16th, 13th, 15th, 7th, 6th, 9th.  This year Duby and Kuemper (and the defense) have them ranked 2nd in the league in goals against/game.  In fact, the average league ranking for GA/GM before this season was 9.87th.  The Wild has had more completed seasons where its GA/GM ranking was in the single digits (9) than in the double digits (6).  Taking nothing away from Duby, Kuemper, and the defense, the kind of defensive effort the Wild is producing this season is not special within the full context of the history of the Wild.

On the other hand, looking at the rankings for goals FOR/game, the Wild has traditionally struggled relative to the rest of the league.  Those rankings, again GF/GM, in order from oldest to most recently completed season: 30th, 25th, 24th, 25th, 25th, 19th, 17th, 22nd, 20th, 26th, 30th, 22nd, 24th, 12th, 18th.  This season to date, Staal, Coyle and the fellas have been scoring at a rate that ranks....4th-best in the league, as of this morning.  You heard me right: 4th-best. As you can see, the Wild has never had a complete season where they finished in the top 10, let alone top 5.

Put another way, the average difference between the Wild's GF/GM and 15th place in the league, from inception through the 2015-2016 season, was -0.24 goals for/game.  The Wild scored a quarter of a goal per game less than the median team over the first 15 seasons of its existence.  The average difference between the Wild's GF/GM and the 1st place team in the league, for the first 15 seasons, was -0.88 goals per game.

This season, the Wild is scoring 0.41 more goals per game than the 15th-ranked team in the league, and  -0.35 goals per game than the 1st place team in the league, as far as GF/GM.  -0.35, if you hadn't already guessed is the lowest spread to the 1st place team that the Wild has ever had.

So, given that the Wild's defensive performance this season (as measured by GA/GM) is in line with their historical data, clearly the difference this season is that their offensive performance (as measured by GF/GM) is significantly better than their historical data.

But therein lies the rub.

A) We have been conditioned to expect the other skate to drop any time.  Until this season is over, I'll be worried about regression.

2) The Wild's GF/GM performance is so much better than historical that it is practically screaming for regression before the season is over.

Well, to that end, I looked at the top 15 scorers on the roster this season, and compared their season-to-date points/game to their career pts/game.  I was pleased with the result.  The list includes, in order from most points to least (among the top 15): Staal, Coyle, Granlund, Koivu, Zucker, Niederreiter, Suter, Parise, Sprugeon, Dumba, Pominville, Brodin, Haula, Stewart, and Scandella (JEEK has one more point than Scandella, but he's no longer with the team, so...).

Those 15 players have played in a combined 551 man games this season, amassing 305 points, or 0.554 points/game.  Those same 15 players, over their careers through the end of last season, had played in a combined 6,900 man games, amassing 4,057 points - OR - 0.588 points/game.  That means that those 15 players have been producing at 0.034 fewer points/game than they had over their collective careers.  Now, that's largely driven by Pominville, who is producing at 0.33 fewer points/game than his career rate, compounded by the fact that he's played in the 3rd-most games of the players on the list.  But Parise (#4 in games played on the list) is also producing 0.147 fewer points/game  than his career number.  And, while Pominville's performance is now a couple seasons in the making, and thus appears to be trend line-able, it is harder to make the same case when it comes to Parise.

Believe it or not, Koivu is producing slightly lower than his career number (0.718 pts/gm this season, 0.729 pts/gm for his career through 2015-2016).  Stewart and Scandella are also under their career numbers.  Coyle is producing at the greatest spread to his career number (+0.374 pts/gm), so you hope he has turned a corner, but prepare for the possibilty that he regresses.  But, countering that, Staal is only producing at 0.057 higher than his career number - which is more likely to be sustainable.

Among those 15 players, the top 7 players ranked by biggest spread to their career pts/gm are: Coyle, Zucker, Granlund, Niederreiter, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Dumba.  That's very interesting, and one hopes at leat a couple of them HAVE turned a corner and will be able to sustain this improved scoring - assuming a couple others regress.

So there you have it.  You can have all your advanced stats.  They all have their uses.  But you really only need one stat (and that of the non-advanced variety, to boot) to show you what is making a difference for the Wild this season.

The Minnesota Wild is scoring.  Whodathunkit?

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